Renewed tension between the United States and China over Taiwan

Washington Correspondent

The prospect of a visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan threatens to trigger a major diplomatic crisis between China and the United States. The Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives arrived in Singapore on Monday with a delegation of American elected officials for a four-day Asian tour. She must go to Malaysia, then to South Korea and Japan. Her stopover in Taiwan has not been officially confirmed or denied, but Pelosi had warned that she would not give details of her itinerary for security reasons.

Several sources in Taipei and Washington say that this high-risk visit will take place, and that the Speaker of the House could arrive on the island as early as Tuesday evening. The absence of a denial could be an implicit confirmation.

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China has already warned the United States against a trip that could have a “serious negative impact” on Sino-American relations, promising “strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

“If you play with fire, you will get burned”, Chinese President Xi Jinping said more simply to Joe Biden last Thursday during a long telephone conversation. “I hope the American side sees this clearly,” Xi added in rather undiplomatic language.

If you want to play with fire, you will get burned

Xi Jinping, Chinese President, to his American counterpart, during a long telephone conversation

“Chinese rhetoric has no reason to exist”, White House National Security Council strategic affairs spokesman John Kirby said Monday. “There is no reason for action to be taken. It is not uncommon for congressional officials to visit Taiwan. This is entirely in line with our policy as set out in the Taiwan Relations Act,” the former admiral said on CNN. He also said Pelosi’s trip had been coordinated with the White House. “I’m not going to talk about the security requirements, but clearly we want to make sure that when she travels abroad she can do so safely, and we’re going to make sure of that.”

Concrete signals

Both powers backed up their statements with concrete signals. China on Sunday announced without notice military exercises near the Pingtan Islands in Fujian province, across the Strait of Formosa, which separates Taiwan from the mainland. Aerial maneuvers were also announced. China “seems to position itself” for a show of force with “missile launches in the Taiwan Strait“, confirmed John Kirby.

The United States sent an aircraft carrier and its carrier strike group, which sailed from Singapore towards the South China Sea, while clarifying that it was a planned movement.

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Pelosi’s trip had already been announced in April, before being pushed back after she caught Covid. The representative from California is a longtime critic of the Chinese Communist Party. During a visit to Beijing in 1991, she unfurled a banner honoring those who died for democracy in 1989 in Tiananmen Square. She had since repeatedly angered the Chinese authorities by meeting the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader in exile, and Chinese dissidents. More recently, she expressed her support for the democracy protests in Hong Kong.

But his trip to Taiwan has the potential for far greater diplomatic consequences. The Speaker of the House, the second person in the order of succession of the United States, is a personality symbolically more important than a simple member of Congress.

The tension created by the announcement of his visit also indicates that the policy of strategic ambiguity of the United States with regard to Taiwan is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. Willingly or not, Joe Biden himself has twice deviated from the official American position in recent months, saying that the United States was committed to coming to Taiwan’s military aid in the event of a Chinese attack. The State Department repeated after the fact that US policy had not changed, but these comments by the president did not escape Beijing.

President Xi Jinping’s determination to assert control of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan should not be underestimated.

William Burns, Director of the CIA

Joe Biden, who is facing a worrying domestic economic crisis at the same time as a conflict in Europe, would have gladly done without a crisis with China. The US president admitted to reporters last month that the Pentagon believed that Pelosi’s visit “is not a good idea at the moment”.

But if prudence recommends abandoning this visit, the United States would then give the impression of bowing to Chinese threats, while recognizing de facto Beijing’s right of veto over the movements of American officials in Taiwan.

Agreement between Democrats and Republicans

Domestically, Joe Biden would also risk appearing weak against China. However, support for Taiwan is one of the few issues on which Republicans and Democrats agree in Congress. Republican elected officials support Nancy Pelosi’s visit, and some have even offered to accompany her.

The last similar crisis erupted in June 1995 when the Taiwanese president obtained a visa to give a speech at an American university. China had then carried out missile tests, and the United States had sent two aircraft carriers to cross the Strait of Formosa. Twenty-seven years later, Chinese military power has become markedly more formidable, and the prospect of a blockade of Taiwan, or other coercive measures by Beijing against the island, is of considerable concern to the Pentagon. The United States also fears the scenario of a formal invasion.

“The determination of President Xi Jinping to assert the control of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan should not be underestimated, CIA Director William Burns said last week during the Aspen Security Forum.I think he is also determined to ensure that his armed forces have the capacity to undertake such an operation if he decides to launch it. And I think the risks are higher than ever as we approach the end of this decade.”