In July, for loans over 20 years and above, it will be possible to take out a mortgage at a rate of up to 5.06% (insurance and fees included). In theory, this should make it possible to finance more borrowers.
Yesterday at 08:30
Attrition rates*, revised monthly since 1eh February, has increased sharply for the month of July. They have thus just exceeded the symbolic threshold of 5% for loans over 20 years and more.
A level not seen since 2012, in a context of rapidly rising credit interest rates.
This upward trend in interest rates, which began 18 months ago, is not ready to stop, especially given the desire of the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its policy of raising key interest rates to fight inflation.
An increase of 0.41 points in one month
The new wear rates, which are now published monthly, have just been published in the Official Journal of the European Union. They have increased very strongly by 0.41 points in July compared to June, especially over 20 years and more, where the duration of loans is currently the most widespread.
For the first time since 2012, they exceeded the 5% threshold, having exceeded 4% in March alone. In July, they thus reached 4.84% for loans over 10 to 20 years and 5.09% for loans over 20 years and more. Compared to the end of 2022, the increase is 2 points in just over six months.
Linked to the sharp rise in credit interest rates
The rapid increase in interest rates for loans over 20 years and over is linked to recent weeks’ strong increase in credit interest rates for loans over 20 and 25 years.
According to the Banque de France, the effective interest rate charged by the banking institutions during the three months prior to 1eh July is 3.82%, plus a third margin to get the attrition rate.
“Mechanically, due to its calculation formula, the wear rate increases faster when credit rates are high,” notes Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for Vousfinancer.
” Good news “
“The rise in interest rates is good news because month after month they become less restrictive and theoretically make it possible to finance more borrowers”, emphasizes Julie Bachet, managing director of the loan broker Vousfinancer.
To Cecile Roquelaure, study director for loan broker Empruntis, “The climb is exceptional! The level of open access to credit is the highest since the beginning of the year. »
Same story on the page of the loan broker Meilleurtaux: “It is good news, because today we are faced with a lack of bank offers with banks that no longer lend, given that their margin is too low, analyzes Maël Bernier, communications director and spokesman for the broker. We know that debtor interest must already be at 4% because the banks themselves lend at 3%. Until now, the usurious rate was too low to allow them to lend at 4%. Banks that have been in retreat for almost a year will be able to return to the credit market, offering buyers greater access to mortgage loans with greater competition. »
Credit interest rates of 5% at the start of 2024?
At this rate, according to Vousfinancer, and with the continuation of their monthly audit, which has been recorded until the end of 2023, attrition rates could rise to more than 6% by the end of the year.
“We maintain our credit rate scenario of 4.5% at the end of the year, and perhaps even the repetition of the rates of 5% at the beginning of 2024…, believes Sandrine Allonier of Vousfinancer. This would be bad news for borrowers whose borrowing capacity would fall further and who, without a sharp fall in house prices, would be even more unable to buy. »
Empruntis estimates that the recovery of the credit market will take longer than expected, “probably not before October to have loans and customers for the beginning of next year, notes Cécile Roquelaure.
We must therefore expect further increases in credit interest rates over the next three months, but if access to credit normalizes, it will be a real improvement. »
For Maël Bernier de Meilleurtaux, “we must remember that interest rates of 1 or 2% are over and that loan interest rates follow inflation. Nevertheless, it is better to have more expensive credit than no credit at all! »
* Rates set by the Banque de France, beyond which a bank is prohibited from lending money. Since 1eh from February 2023, they will be updated every month (and no longer every quarter) on the basis of the average of the rates applied by the banks during the previous three months, according to the maturity of the loans (less than 10 years, 20 years and more, etc.), after which they will be increased by a third. Thus, the annual effective annual interest rate or APR (including the loan interest itself, the cost of borrower insurance, administration fees, etc.) must not exceed the applicable wear and tear.