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In the US, inflation is the big challenge

In a supermarket in Alhambra, California. Growth in food prices without falling, “showed signs of stabilization”stresses Société Générale. FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP

US economic activity is holding up despite the possibility of a coming recession.

Almost all “Seems to have gotten used to the idea of ​​a coming recession”, about “companies, consumers or markets. The chairman of the US central bank has stopped talking about a soft landing for the economy. sums up the investment company Schroders in a year-end note. The US Federal Reserve will no doubt continue to tighten monetary policy. Economists expect a rise in its rates to 5.25% in the coming months against a range of 4.25% to 4.5% currently.

Is it said a lot? The Fed assumes the risk of pushing the economy into recession next year. But the fall is not certain. Positioning itself away from a consensus that expects growth of +0.3%, Schroders expects a decline of 1%. “We forecast a slight technical recession for the US in the first half of 2023, with GDP remaining stable over the year.”provided on his side…

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