It’s a kind of “social weather forecast” that the government has just invented. For his new unemployment insurance reform, he envisioned two scenarios, depending on whether the unemployment rate is above or below 9%.
A “red” period, when unemployment is high. The unemployment insurance rules will then be maintained in their current state: the maximum duration of compensation is a maximum of 24 months for unemployed persons under 53 years of age, 30 months for persons aged 53 or 54 years, or 36 months from 55 years of age.
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A “green” period, when unemployment is more moderate. New jobseekers then lose part of their rights: the amount of the subsidy does not change, but the maximum duration of the subsidy is reduced by 25%. It therefore rises to 18 months for people under the age of 53, to 22.5 months for the unemployed aged 53 and 54 and to 27 months from the age of 55.
Why a threshold of 9% unemployment for the change of period? The Executive believes that this is the average rate observed over the past twenty years (it is the quarterly unemployment rate, as measured by the International Labor Office, that is taken into account).
The transition from one period to another is not only governed by the 9% unemployment threshold. Here is how the new device would have worked if it had been in use for the last twenty years:
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a-kasse red green
HAVE. Unemployment rate of 9%: transition to red period
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B. Third quarter in a row below 9%: back to the green period
vs. Subprime crisis, sudden increase in unemployment of more than 0.8 points in 1 quarter (from 7.7% to 8.6%): transition to a red period
D. Three consecutive quarters below 9%: return to the green period
E. Health crisis, sudden increase in unemployment of more than 0.8 points in 1 quarter (from 7.1% to 9%): transition to red period
Unemployment insurance: heads, job seekers lose, tails, they don’t win