Washington (awp/afp) – US consumer confidence started to rise again in August, mainly as they view the medium term with more optimism, while remaining cautious about the current situation.
The confidence index increased by 2.1% compared to July and reached 67.8 points, according to the preliminary survey from the University of Michigan, published on Friday.
A better trend than expected by analysts, who indeed expected a small increase in the index, but rather predicted it to 66.7 points according to the consensus published by briefing.com.
The index ended July at 66.4 points.
“Overall, expectations are improving both in terms of the perception of the personal financial situation and the five-year outlook for the economy, which has reached its highest level during the last four months,” assessed the research director. Joanne Hsu, quoted in the press release.
The increase is solely caused by a clear increase in confidence in the development of the economic situation in the medium term, whose sub-index rose by 4.8% over a month to 72.1 points.
The Nov. 5 presidential election is the main reason for the recovery, including an improvement in consumer confidence that claims to be Democrats, President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race for the White House and his replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris.
The trust of consumers who claim to be Democrats increased by 6%, while the trust of those who claim to be Republicans fell by 5%. Independent voters have a 3% increase in trust in the medium term.
The survey also shows that 41% of consumers believe that Ms. Harris is a better candidate for the economy, with 38%, on the contrary, believing that Republican candidate Donald Trump is a better choice in this area.
This is a reversal, whereas a month earlier Mr Trump was ahead of Mr Biden by 5 percentage points on this question.
As for inflation, expectations remain unchanged among US consumers who expect to see it remain around 2.9% over the medium term, as in the previous month.
Inflation fell to 2.9% year-on-year in July, according to the CPI index released on Wednesday, on which Americans’ pensions are indexed.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) favors the PCE index, the latest trend of which will be known at the end of the month, which stood at 2.5% over the year in June.
afp/cw
