The American president is visiting Saudi Arabia on Friday and Saturday, a country from which he distanced himself during his electoral campaign and during his first eighteen months in the White House. But the war in Ukraine and the geopolitical context in the Middle East forced him to review his doctrine.
Unusual fact: the President of the United States deemed it essential to publish a column in the Washington Post to justify his choice to go to Saudi Arabia on Friday July 15 and Saturday July 16.
“I know that many do not agree with my decision to go to Saudi Arabia”, writes Joe Biden in this text, before trying to reassure: “My views on human rights are clear and enduring and fundamental freedoms are always on the agenda when I travel.”
A privileged partner of Washington since the famous “Quincy Pact” concluded in 1945, the Saudi kingdom has welcomed all American presidents, without exception, over the past thirty years. George Bush Sr., Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump: all of them visited Riyadh at least once during their mandate, the prize going to Barack Obama with four visits made between 2009 and 2016.
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The 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who worked for the Washington Post, changed that. Two years later, Joe Biden promised during his presidential campaign in 2020 to reduce the Saudi monarchy to the rank of “pariah”. The stated goal was clear: take the opposite view of his predecessor, Donald Trump, by making the defense of democratic values and human rights a priority.
Once elected, Joe Biden kept his word. Within days, in February 2021, he questioned US support for Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, removed the Houthis from the US blacklist of terrorist organizations and declassified a CIA report concluding that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman had “validated” the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. But now the American president is ready to strengthen ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia and to meet “MBS”. A reversal that is surprising.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reshuffled all the cards”
“It is a shift that is not self-evident vis-à-vis American public opinion, given the posture adopted by Joe Biden at the start of his mandate. On the side of the Democrats, he is accused of And on the side of the Republicans, we sneer saying that he is doing like Trump after having resolutely criticized him. His platform therefore aims to respond in anticipation to these attacks, “explains David Rigoulet-Roze, teacher and researcher attached to French Institute for Strategic Analysis (Ifas), editor-in-chief of the journal Orients Strategiques.
“We have reversed the policy of blank checks that we inherited” from previous President Donald Trump, defends Joe Biden in his tribune. “From the beginning, my goal has been to redirect – but not to break – the relationship,” he says.
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“Joe Biden was overtaken by the principle of reality, namely the defense of American geopolitical and strategic interests, analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reshuffled all the cards by driving up the price of oil and by causing inflation that affects all Western countries, including the United States. This situation restores a central place to Saudi Arabia that Joe Biden cannot ignore.”
Washington would therefore like the world’s largest crude oil exporter to open the floodgates to calm the surge in black gold prices and appease inflation, which, in addition to the economic consequences, is hurting the chances of the Democrats in the mid-term legislative elections. -mandate in November.
In case of Iranian nuclear failure, contain Tehran
Beyond the oil issue, other issues will be on the menu of Joe Biden’s trip, who will travel to Saudi Arabia – a country that does not officially recognize Israel – by making an unprecedented direct flight between the Jewish state and Jeddah. . Joe Biden promises in particular in his forum to “deepen and extend” the process of normalization of relations between Israel and certain Arab countries, launched under the tutelage of Donald Trump. A file directly linked to the Iranian nuclear issue.
“The Americans are beginning to take note of the fact that they will probably not be able to finalize a nuclear agreement with Tehran, underlines David Rigoulet-Roze. Consequently, their objective, from now on, is to contain Iran by setting up a regional defense architecture associating Israel and the Arab countries. However, there can be no effective global security system without Saudi Arabia.”
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The remarks made by Joe Biden in Israel on Thursday confirm this trend. The American president affirmed to favor the diplomatic way vis-a-vis Teheran, while specifying that the United States was not going “to wait indefinitely” for Iran to reach an agreement aiming at relaunching that of 2015, whereas the negotiations are stalling.
Joe Biden must notably take part in a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council which will bring together the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The leaders of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan are also expected to attend, according to a senior US official quoted by AFP.
Keeping the edge on China
Finally, the last file, less publicized this one, concerns the rivalry between Washington and Beijing, barely addressed in a few words by Joe Biden – “putting us in the best possible situation to supplant China” – in his column published in the Washington Post.
“Mohammed bin Salman hinted at the start of the year that Saudi Arabia could denominate its oil sales to the Chinese in yuan and no longer in dollars, which would be a bombshell since the bulk of oil market transactions is done in petro-dollars, underlines David Rigoulet-Roze. In terms of prestige and status for American power on the world, such a change would be a major upheaval. The thinly veiled threat was anything but innocuous and the subliminal message has was perfectly received in Washington.”
Realpolitik has therefore regained the upper hand over Joe Biden’s vision of the world, allowing Saudi Arabia to pass in just a few months from the status of “pariah” to that of a new essential partner for the United States.
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