As expected, the mortgage rates are back at their annual levels.
I suspected they would be, despite a rough few months before and after the election.
There has been a lot of uncertainty recently, but the bond yield has also cooled thanks to the friendlier financial data and an exposure to most tariffs.
The mortgage rates are also simply better today than last year, because they have been more and less driving lower since they peaked by 8% at the end of 2023.
The question is, will it continue, and if so, it can save Spring Housing Market?
Where mortgage rates stand today: lower than last year
Both Freddie Mac and Mortgage News daily published a 30-year-old back in the 6s today, which after seeing 7 and 8 did not sound half-bath.
Of course it is far from 3%, but it is all psychological and lower is better, although higher than it was in the past.
Specifically, priority rates dropped to 6.85% during the week ending on February 20, which was just below last year’s average of 6.90% at this time, per year. Freddie Mac.
Meanwhile, MND got the 30-year-old fasting to 6.96%, which was less than 7.11% seen at the end of February 2024.
It is not yet a massive improvement, but it is an improvement. And it does with my take that mortgage rates remain in a falling environment.
If you are considering where the 30-year-old fasting was at the end of 2023, the rates have improved by over 100 basic points (1%).
And if you compare them to last spring, which is a high -purchase season with the home, they are about 50 bps lower.
For large parts of April last year, the 30-year-old fasting hovered about 7.50%, which put a damper on the home sale and wounded the home buyer’s mood.
[2025 Home Buying Tips as the Buyer’s Market Returns]
Can they move even lower over the next few months?
The big question now is, can they hold it up, or will they click back to the 7s and stop potential home buyers in their tracks?
It’s someone’s guess, as always, but we know Trump wants lower priority rates to benefit from voters.
And we know that his Finance Minister Scott Bessent is also fixed to get long -term interest rates lower.
So if they stay true to their words and financial data play ball, e.g. Inflation continues to cool, we could be lucky.
The latest developments, mass sites and buyouts, could also work in mortgage prices.
After all, interest rates have a tendency to respond well to higher unemployment on the basis that it corresponds to smaller consumers who use, slower growth, etc.
Given how many job cuts have been announced for such a short period of time, it has the power to move the disc on the bond yield.
If the 10-year bond yield continues to fall because of that, 30-year-old fixed mortgage loans could follow (how to track priority rates).
Although it is clearly negative for the many affected government employees, it would be a headwind for home buyers and those who want to refinance a priority loan.
Be hopeful but do not rain with lower rates if you buy a home in the spring
Takeaway here is that the mortgage rates continue to go down after climbing significantly after the election.
They still remain slightly higher than their 52-week-to-week low as the 30-year-old fasting was on average an average of 6% flat.
It took place back in September before a hot job report, and by the way before Trump, the clear Frontrunner became the election.
If his administration continues to say rate-friendly things that Bessents talk about being a “long way” from increasing sales in the longer term.
And possibly taping the brakes on quantitative tightening (QT), priority rates can continue to improve.
Especially if inflation and employment reports continue to get into favorable.
I don’t think it would take much for buyers to get excited about lower priority rates as a low-6 or even high-5 would probably be tasty at this time.
But we also need to keep an eye on the debt ceiling and the $ 4.5 trillion in tax cuts that Republicans want is expanded.
Somehow it has to be paid for, and it is unclear whether cutting a bunch of government jobs really equalizes these costs.
In other words, there is a very real threat to mortgage rates that could completely derail their recent features lower.
And the mood of the spring home purchase market is seriously attenuating, which already seems to suffer in many parts of the country, namely Sun Belt.
Upside, if prices go up again, you may be even more negotiating power with sellers.
Read on: 2025 Predictions
Before creating this site, I worked as a banking director of a wholesale loan in Los Angeles. My practical experience in the early 2000s inspired me to start writing about mortgage loans 19 years ago to help potential (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on x for hot take.
