The search of Donald Trump’s villa on Monday August 8 by the FBI was staged by the former President of the United States who said he was persecuted, a context he “creates himself” according to Jean-Eric Branaa, specialist in the United States and lecturer at Assas-Paris II University on franceinfo, Tuesday August 9. According to him, Donald Trump “is used to this excessive victimization”, in which he sees “crowd manipulation”.
franceinfo: It was Donald Trump himself who revealed that his villa was being searched, in an alarmist press release. How do you analyze it?
Jean-Eric Branaa: We see that there is crowd manipulation and Donald Trump excels in this part. That’s what he did again last night with his press release. He is used to this excessive victimization by putting it all in a context of persecution against his own person, which he actually creates himself.
It is true that one could say that there was relentlessness at the time of the “Russian investigation” because there were no complaints against Donald Trump personally, directly. But for the investigations that are ongoing into the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 for which his responsibility is highlighted, for example, justice is expected to pass on Donald Trump, we are in a state of right.
Do you think he will be a candidate for the presidential election of 2024?
I have been saying for two years that he will not be a candidate, and that hasn’t changed today: the court cases are falling on him one after the other at a time when the Republicans declare by more than 50% that they don’t want more Donald Trump. He encounters serious difficulties in the primaries with resounding failures in South Carolina or Georgia, key states he needs to be a candidate.
Similarly, the race for 2024 is very open on the Republican side and candidates are starting to emerge against it: there is a lot of talk about Ron de Santis, the governor of Florida, or Mike Pence, his former vice-president. That’s still a lot for one man.
“Donald Trump will not go in my opinion because there are too many chances that he will lose this election, that he will avoid being the ‘superlooser’ by losing twice in a row.”
Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer at Assas-Paris II Universityat franceinfo
Could the Republican party and American democracy go down with Trump?
I believe the Republican Party is still a great party. There is a fringe of this party which has sunk “into the dark”, which is very far right, but it is about a third of the party. For the rest, they are mainly taken up by considerations of re-election which makes them support theses which, sometimes, are a little borderline. But they also know not to go all the way.
If American democracy is damaged, I believe that it has shown its resistance. She resisted January 6, and currently Congress is considering how to correct the mistakes that led to the Capitol invasion. It’s all part of a democracy. There is no question of changing this Constitution, which works tremendously well. All of this is quite positive in the end, and I think that’s what history will remember.
