Trump threatens land grabs on the Panama Canal, Greenland, even by force. Can he?: ANALYSIS

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office later this month, he is increasing his threats to seize a critical shipping lane and a strategic foreign country — suggesting he might even use military force to do so.

“I’m not going to commit to that,” Trump said Tuesday when asked if he would rule out using the U.S. military to gain control of the Panama Canal and Greenland during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago.

“You might have to do something. Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country,” he continued, also saying, “we need Greenland for national security purposes.” He added: “We need them for economic security. The Panama Canal was built for our military.”

Trump also criticized former President Jimmy Carter for overseeing diplomatic negotiations to hand over the Panama Canal, which the United States completed construction in 1914 and controlled until Jimmy Carter relinquished authority in 1977 with the Panama Canal Treaty.

“The Panama Canal is a disgrace. What happened to the Panama Canal? Jimmy Carter gave it to them for $1 and they were supposed to treat us well. I thought it was a terrible thing to do,” Trump said.

Despite Trump’s focus on expanding US territory, his strategy for achieving his goals remains unclear — and many of the claims the president-elect has made to rationalize the takeovers range from debatable to dubious, experts say.

They largely agree that Greenland has an important strategic location and is rich in lithium, graphite and other minerals. However, the world’s largest island already hosts a US military base, and a long-standing treaty gives Washington significant control over Greenland’s defenses. Greenland and Denmark are also NATO allies.

“People really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to it. But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security. It’s for the free world. I’m talking about protecting it free world,” Trump said.

On Panama, Trump has repeatedly claimed that the canal is “run by China” and that US ships are charged more than ships operated by other countries to cross it.

“They don’t treat us fairly. They charge more for our ships than they charge for ships from other countries. They charge more for our fleet than they charge for other countries’ navies,” he complained. “They laugh at us because they think we’re stupid, but we’re not stupid anymore.”

In reality, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) – which is controlled by the Panamanian government – operates the waterway, and a 1977 diplomatic treaty with the US mandates that all countries should be allowed to use it for “peaceful transit” and that there being “no discrimination against any nation, or its citizens or subjects, as to the conditions or charges.”

Accordingly, rates and tolls associated with crossing the Channel are determined by the size and type of vessel and the cargo it carries – not the flag the vessel flies. While the costs associated with using the waterway have risen in recent years, limits to the canal’s capacity due to a historic drought are behind the price increase.

China’s growing influence in Panama and across Central America more generally has raised concerns on both sides of the aisle, but the same 1977 treaty authorizes the United States to intervene if the canal’s neutrality is jeopardized.

Allowing a military intervention with the aim of taking over the Panama Canal – or Greenland – is another matter.

Authorities in Panama and Greenland have repeatedly said they will not hand over any territory to Trump, with Panama’s president declaring the canal “will remain in our hands forever” and Denmark’s prime minister insisting “Greenland is not for sale .”

The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the sole authority to declare war against a foreign power and—once war is declared—gives the president far-reaching authority to execute the conflict.

But presidents have often used military force without congressional approval, including against Panama.

In December 1989, former President George HW Bush launched an invasion of Panama to overthrow the country’s de facto ruler, General Manuel Noriega. The intervention, which was widely supported by the American public at the time, put Panama on a path to democracy – but was condemned by the United Nations as a violation of international law.

Trump has also said he could use economic pressure to force countries to capitulate to his agenda, including Canada, which the president-elect has repeatedly said should become the 51st state.

“Because Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like, and that would be much better for national security as well,” Trump said.

Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to Trump’s comments in a post on X, writing “there is not a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”

“Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s largest trade and security partner,” he said.

Congress has delegated much of its foreign economic authority to the White House, but the biggest speed bump holding back Trump’s ability to impose tariffs on Canada may be a trade deal negotiated under Trump himself: the United States-Mexico Agreement (USMCA).

The USMCA — which is not due for review until 2026 — allows any member to withdraw from it, but requires the withdrawing country to wait six months before canceling benefits to other parties.

The president-elect’s clearest way to fulfill one of his pledges to redraw the world map may be to rename the Gulf of Mexico, which he promised to change to the “Gulf of America.”

“What a beautiful name,” he said. “And that’s appropriate.”