Elected in November 2020 and invested in January 2021, Joe Biden will celebrate his two years at the head of the United States in a few months. Born in 1942, the American president will be 80 years old. If his staff says he will be on the starting line in 2024, it is difficult to imagine him running for a second term at 82 and leaving power at 86 in the event of a victory.
Especially since its popularity rating has been falling continuously for nearly a year with the multiplication of interminable crises – Covid-19, war in Ukraine, galloping inflation – and nothing seems able to reverse this trend in the short term. . Worse, the press articles multiply to underline the weakness of its answer on major subjects like the right to abortion or the weapons.
In this context, behind the scenes, discussions are emerging within the Democratic camp and some elected officials are gradually advancing their pawns while reaffirming their loyalty to the tenant of the White House. On the Republican side, the party finds itself bound hand and foot to the extremist excesses of Trumpism which could, with the approach of the 2024 presidential election, cause a lot of internal tension. But the former president, who remains at the heart of the device, is no longer the one and only option. If for the time being no one has officially drawn, the race for the White House has already well and truly begun.
Among the Democrats, continuity or rupture?
As we have seen, a second lap by Joe Biden seems unlikely, even if this possibility cannot be completely excluded. Logic would dictate that in the event of the president’s retirement, his vice-president, Kamala Harris, would take over. Well identified by the Americans, the former Californian senator no longer suffers from a lack of notoriety since she was chosen as running mate during the last campaign.
Neither too old nor too young, stemming from diversity, she seems to have the perfect profile to mobilize the Democratic electorate. She can also count on her significant weight within the establishment to influence and establish herself as the new leader of the party. At first glance, therefore, nothing seems to be able to stand in its way. But the president’s unpopularity reflects on her and her role does not allow her to stand out. The vice-presidency is indeed a position of representation without real political power. Added to this are communication problems and tensions with the White House. In summary, a bad dynamic.
This situation therefore opens the door to candidacies that break somewhat with the Biden filiation. Bernie Sanders’ teams are not ruling out, for example, the possibility of a third candidacy, according to an internal document revealed by the Washington Post last April. The senator from Vermont will then be 83 years old, which may pose a problem. But the surprise could come from Sacramento, since the governor of the progressive state of California, Gavin Newsom, no longer hides his national ambitions.
He has been leading an aggressive campaign against the Republicans for several months and criticizes his party for not fully engaging in the “culture war”. On the occasion of the national holiday of July 4, he even broadcast a television commercial in Florida to alert residents to the draconian nature of conservative policies and encourage them to move to the West Coast. If he persists in this way and continues to attract attention, Gavin Newsom – who will be 57 years old in 2024 – could well be the personality to follow on the Democratic side.
We will also have to look closely at Pete Buttigieg, surprise of the last primary and current Minister of Transport, or even the governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer, for a time on the front of the stage at the start of the health crisis.
Republicans seek a less divisive personality
Within the Grand Old Party, things are more complicated. Donald Trump, who has never hidden his desire to relaunch himself in a third electoral campaign, could formalize his candidacy very soon to pull the rug out from under his competitors and try to protect himself from the devastating revelations of the 6 January investigating his post-election 2020 coup attempt and storming of the Capitol.
It is, however, no longer quite in the odor of sanctity in the conservative camp and is increasingly seen as toxic, despite its relative hold on the party and the fanaticism of its base. Several members of the Republican establishment would even like to get rid of him to make way for a less divisive but equally reactionary figure, like his former vice-president Mike Pence or the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis.
The first, denied by the Trumpists since his refusal to overturn the results of the election, should fizzle out during the next Republican primary. The second, however, has its chances, with or without Trump. Fox News darling, appreciated by Elon Musk or the very influential podcaster Joe Rogan, rising in all the polls, Ron DeSantis is popular with the elites and the base.
Communicating efficiently and skilfully, he knew how to stay quite far from the conspiratorial rantings of the last administration and chart his course by multiplying the attacks against the Democrats and the “wokes”. At odds with him after being his mentor, Donald Trump knows he could lose in the event of a duel in the Republican primaries.
Should we unplug Trump?
The challenge for Republicans is therefore to determine whether unplugging the former president is the right solution. For Congresswoman Liz Cheney, daughter of former George W. Bush Vice President Dick Cheney and a member of the Capitol Inquiry, the answer is clear: “The most important thing is to protect the nation from him.” A minority within her party and sanctioned for her participation in the commission, her word is not representative of the conservative electorate, but she says she is ready to do anything to block her path, until she runs in 2024 (in independent?) to promote the Democratic candidacy.
When we know that a victory in a state is sometimes decided by a few thousand votes, such a decision could have a significant effect, as was the case in 1992 when the extremely wealthy conservative Ross Perot managed the feat of obtaining almost of 19% of the voices in independent, condemning George HW Bush with the defeat vis-a-vis Bill Clinton.
In an exceptional situation, an exceptional configuration? The next US presidential election could see two unexpected candidates clash and undermine the forecasts made so far. And when we know that now it is the survival of the democracy of the first world power that is at stake during the elections, there is no doubt that the next campaign will be just as popular as the previous ones.
