US Presidential Election 2024. Poll Collectors – Trump Ahead

VHere, as of May 31, 2024, are the results of the five polling aggregators regarding the November 5 US presidential election that we have selected.

Three of the five aggregators have been updated.

All five still put extremist and populist demagogue Donald Trump in the lead with a lead that remains stable for four of them, while a fifth shows an increase for centrist Joe Biden.

Thus, the Republican candidate’s lead in the five aggregators is between 0.1 and 1.6 points.

Deviations that fall within the margins of error.

► Results from poll aggregators Biden versus Trump

*NA: not updated / ND: not available

(A poll aggregator is an average of the last published polls / 270 to win takes into account the last five polls / Real Clear Politics takes into account polls published in the previous 30 days / The Hill takes into account polls published in the last 3 days / Race to the WH takes into account polls published in the last 5 days)

Important Note: All of these aggregators take into account all published studies.
However, some of them are published by institutes whose seriousness is open to debate, and others by institutes affiliated with parties, which tend to make corrections, adjustments and weightings in favor of the candidate they support.
It is therefore appropriate to take them as useful information, but which do not provide a “scientific” view of meaning.
But the results of national polls are generally more accurate than those conducted in each state, especially the “swing states,” the key states that tilt the election to one side or the other of the American electoral system, because the panels are often not representative enough in quality or quantity and the adjustments are subject to doubt.
All these biases mean that above all we have preferred to publish aggregators rather than every opinion poll that is published, although in another step we intend to publish some that seem serious to us, as well as those that analyze the state of attitudes on a daily day basis and which has not yet started.