In November 2021, Russia was accused of endangering the International Space Station [ISS] by testing a direct ascent anti-satellite missile [ASAT]which ended with the destruction of Cosmos-1408, a satellite dedicated to electromagnetic intelligence which had been operating at an altitude of approximately 485 km since 1982.
Russia is “ready to endanger the exploration and use of outer space by all nations through its reckless and irresponsible behavior,” replied Antony Blinken, the head of US diplomacy. And with good reason: the Russian test had created around 1,500 pieces of debris that, distributed between 200 and 1,000 km altitude, were likely to endanger other satellites.
Since then, the question has been whether Moscow intends to go further… On February 14, Michael Turner, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, spoke of “information relating to a serious threat to national security,” without providing further details .
Soon after, US officials confided, on condition of anonymity, that Russia was developing a nuclear space weapon system capable of disabling or even destroying satellites… Which is prohibited under the Outer Space Treaty [article 4] entered into force in October 1967.
Two days later, however, John Kirby, the spokesman for the White House National Security Council, confirmed that it was not an “immediate threat”, although the elements advanced about this Russian anti-satellite weapon were “worrying”. And added: “We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack people or cause destruction on Earth.”
Moscow, for its part, described the “information from the United States” as “malicious”, before seeing it as a maneuver by the US administration aimed at convincing the elected representatives of Congress to vote for the $61 billion in military aid promised to Ukraine.
Still, some space experts did not hide their skepticism. “The effects of a nuclear explosion are even more imprecise, affecting all satellites in the surrounding area and causing electrical discharges thousands of kilometers around […] But the Russians themselves are very dependent on satellites! “, commented Bleddyn Bowen, a specialist in spatial geopolitics at the University of Leicester.
“The hypothesis of a nuclear charge is fanciful,” argued the general [2S] Michel Friedling, former “chief” of the Space Command, accompanied by Paul Wohrer, researcher specializing in space issues at the French Institute of International Relations [IFRI]. “History teaches us that it is useless to place a nuclear weapon in space. Nuclear tests carried out in the 1960s did not show significant effectiveness of this type of weapon, especially when there is a large number of satellites to reach, he recalled on the pages of Usbek & Rica.
In any case, in early May two US officials again brought up this alleged anti-satellite nuclear weapon.
“What worries us is Russia’s intention to send a nuclear weapon into space. […] It would be a blind weapon [qui] would have no national borders [et] which will not distinguish between military satellites, civilian satellites and commercial satellites,” John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, declared at a parliamentary hearing.
During an event organized in Washington by the Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS]On May 3, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Mallory Stewart argued that “on the basis that we consider credible”, Russia would intend “to integrate nuclear weapons into its combat programs in space”. And added that “something” was currently in orbit as part of the development of this anti-satellite nuclear weapon.
This “something” would be the Cosmos-2553 satellite, which was launched on February 5, 2022, would have a scientific name. According to American experts, however, it moves in an unusual orbit that is not frequented by other spacecraft. In addition, it would be too high to carry out the experiments mentioned by the Russian authorities.
Also, according to information gathered by the Wall Street Journal from anonymous Biden administration officials, Cosmos-2553 is precisely part of the Russian anti-satellite nuclear weapons program.
This satellite “does not carry nuclear weapons. But US officials say it is linked to Russia’s anti-satellite nuclear weapons program, which is raising growing concerns […]. The weapon, if deployed, would give Moscow the capacity to destroy hundreds of satellites in low Earth orbit with a nuclear explosion,” the paper says.
Currently, the United States has 6,700 satellites operating in low orbit … while China has 780 and Russia 149.
In addition, in April the US and Japan failed to get the UN Security Council to pass a resolution calling on all states, and especially those with significant space capabilities, to prevent a space arms race.
“The States parties to the Outer Space Treaty undertake to fully comply with it, in particular not to place in Earth orbit any object carrying nuclear weapons or any other type of weapon of mass destruction, not to install such weapons on celestial bodies and not to place such weapons in any other way in outer space,” this text said.
And to emphasize the “serious consequences for the interests of all Member States which may result from the explosion of a nuclear weapon or the use of any other type of weapon of mass destruction in space”. He also urged “not to develop nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction specifically designed to be placed in Earth orbit, installed on celestial bodies, or placed in any other way in outer space.”
But out of the fifteen members of the Security Council, only Russia vetoed this draft resolution, while China abstained.
