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US narrowly avoids recession, IMF says

“We expect the US economy to slow in 2022-23 but narrowly avoid a recession,” IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Friday, June 24. The IMF predicts a 2.9% expansion for US gross domestic product in 2022 from 3.7% projected in April. For 2023, growth falls to 1.7%, according to these new projections from the International Monetary Fund in its annual review of the US economy (Article IV). But “there remain risks that the current headwinds will prove more persistent than expected or that the economy will suffer another shock which would then transform this slowdown into a brief recession”, adds the institution.

“The expected slowdown in US demand, combined with the necessary tightening of financial conditions around the world, has the potential to negatively impact individuals, companies and countries that have borrowed in dollars,” recognizes the IMF. However, the Fund welcomes the monetary policy of the American Central Bank (Fed), which drastically raised its key rates and began to reduce its balance sheet, inflating billions of dollars in asset purchases during the slowdown due to the pandemic. . “The priority now is to rapidly slow wage and price growth without pushing the economy into recession,” the IMF said.

The Fed must better communicate its plans for rate changes

The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points at its last monetary meeting, its biggest hike in nearly 30 years, and the Fund estimates “that this path leading to a level of 3.5% to 4% of the funds feds is the right policy to bring down inflation”. Fed overnight rates are currently in the range of 1.50% and 1.75% from zero at the start of the year. The IMF also invites the US Central Bank to better communicate its plans for rate changes, while the last increase, stronger than expected, had come as a surprise to the markets.

“The Monetary Committee (FOMC) must telegraph well in advance, the expected evolution of its monetary policy to ensure that the withdrawal of the accommodative policy is done in an orderly, methodical and transparent manner,” advises the IMF again.

The question of customs duties to be abolished

Ms. Georgieva, the Fund’s Managing Director, also urged Washington to remove customs duties – imposed in particular on products from China five years ago – to “boost economic performance and ease supply constraints”. “At a time of high inflation and strained supply chains…we can see clear benefits in suspending the tariffs that have been introduced over the past five years,” Ms Georgieva said. during a press conference.

Nevertheless, the US Trade Representative recently said that high tariffs on China offered “leverage” in negotiations with Beijing that she was reluctant to give up. The IMF report indicates that the removal of customs duties on steel, aluminum and a range of products from China “would support growth and help reduce inflation”. After the Covid-19 pandemic, the rapid recovery of the world’s largest economy, helped until then by low interest rates and massive government aid, has reduced poverty from 11.8% in 2019 to 9.1% in 2020. More than 8.5 million jobs since the end of 2020.

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