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will mortgages pick up again after summer?

According to figures from the Banque de France, the production of new mortgage loans fell to 11.1 billion euros in June (compared to 14.1 billion euros in May). The reasons: the rapid increase in credit interest rates, access to financing, which has been tightened over the past year…

Many loan applications have been rejected. But the now monthly update of wear rates has brought a breath of fresh air to the market. And their new increase in July allows some banks to start being profitable again. The recovery may come after the summer. Good news for borrowers.

Credit rates are still rising in July

As since February 2022, the weight of the banks received by the brokers is invariably increasing: no stagnation, no decline. According to broker Empruntis, the increases are an average of 25 basis points. But the range is wide, from 10 to 40 basis points, and almost half of the scales received show an increase of at least 30 basis points.

“The banking institutions that had the largest increases published their scale after the publication of the interest rate * for July [à 5,09 % sur les durées de 20 ans et plus, soit + 41 points de base par rapport à juin, NDLR]notes the broker.

Increases that always have a strong effect and for all profiles: Increases on the best profiles are even higher than the average rate by +20 basis points over 20 years. Banks always agree to lend, but the profitability of the operation is crucial, regardless of the profile. »

Between 3.62% and 4% over 25 years

The average credit rate is thus 3.70% over 15 years, 3.80% over 20 years and 4% over 25 years, according to Empruntis. The best profiles can expect rates of 3.10% over 15 years, 3.25% over 20 years and 3.35% over 25 years.

The broker Artémi’s brokerage estimates the average rates at 3.35% over 15 years, 3.45% over 20 years and 3.62% over 25 years. Top filers can earn an average rate of 2.95% over 15 years, 3.15% over 20 years and 3.35% over 25 years.

New profitable banks?

The successive increases in credit interest rates and thus in usury rates are beginning to have their effect. “This will allow banking institutions to take advantage of more margins to finance projects in the coming months,” said Ludovic Huzieux, co-founder of Artémis brokerage.

Same story on the Loan side. “The first partners tell us that they are starting to become profitable again, says Cécile Roquelaure, spokesperson for the broker. We are certainly not at known levels of profitability before January 2022, but this confirms our projection: the recovery should come after the summer. »

A recovery facilitated by the renewal of the monthly update of wear rates (and no longer quarterly), extended until January 2024 by decree of June 27, 2023.

“So we are entering a new phase,” she continues. After the bull run, it will be a question of who will open the credit floodgates first. “The year 2024 could herald a year of recovery, but “without drum or trumpet”, imagines Cécile Roquelaure.

Complete your file before the next interest rate increase

“Although now progressing at a slightly less sustained pace, credit rates should exceed the 4% mark as soon as the school year begins, which could in turn reduce buyers’ borrowing capacity,” observes Ludovic Huzieux.. “While you wait for good news, the start of the summer period is a sign of a slowdown in activity for everyone, and if you have a file to investigate, you must hurry to get a bank agreement as soon as possible, before the next interest rate increase! “, advises Cécile Roquelaure.

* Rates set by the Banque de France, beyond which a bank is prohibited from lending money. Since 1eh from February 2023, they will be updated every month (and no longer every quarter) based on the average of the rates applied by the banks in the previous three months, depending on the duration of the loans (less than 10 years, 20 years and more, etc.), then they will be increased by a third. Thus, the annual effective annual interest rate or APR (including the loan interest itself, the costs of borrower insurance, administration fees, etc.) must not exceed the applicable wear and tear.



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